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  • Economist Todd Hirsch April 8, 2022

Presentation by Todd Hirsch at EDA Conference, April 8, 2022

  1. Invasion
  2. Inflation
  3. Interest Rates

Invasion:

  • A tragedy of human life
  • Higher energy prices
  • Wheat & canola prices
  • Export opportunities - limited in short run
  • Instability in financial markets (investments, RRSP's)
  • Price instability
  • Inflation - great for producers but not for consumers
  • Longer term impact of hydrocarbons

Inflation

  • Some relief from province cutting gas tax for a few months
  • Supply disruptions due to COVID and War, minor inconvenience for consumers but detrimental for business
  • Climate change disrupting crops due to drought, flooding, grasshoppers and more resulting in commodity price increase
  • Labour shortage
  • Disruption in income due to COVID
  • Bank accounts savings increase for those who kept their jobs as they did not have opportunities to spend

Interest Rates

  • Starting March 2nd, interest rate tightening has commenced
  • Lowest unemployment rate in Canada
  • Housing affordability concerns and biding wars on houses
  • Estimating 50 basis point increase in April

Alberta Economic Outlook

  • 4.5% GDP increase in 2022 due to rebound felt globally
  • 3.0% GDP increase in 2023
  • unemployment rate 7% but appears to be decreasing, our typical is 4 to 4.5%
  • growth in tech & digital, agriculture & agri-foods, tourism, renewable energy & clean energy tech,(business in the leader in this, not the government), oil not the growth backbone that it use to be.

Risks

  • Geo-political events
  • Inflation
  • Rising interest rates
  • COVID's next move - will the sixth wave be disruptive?
  • Level of anger in the air from COVID restriction protests to (MAD is the body guard of SAD)


Quote:

Ultimately, what we call "the economy" is our material relationship with each other and the rest of the living world.

We must ask ourselves: what do we want that relationship to be like?

Do we want it to be about domination and extraction?

Or do we want it to be about reciprocity and care?


Recommended Book: Jason Hickel, Less is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World


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